Question
I welcome the changes announced today, and thank the Home Secretary for the way that she reached out during the consultation. In particular, when it comes to our responsibility to BNO visa holders, she has listened. In the past, one of the challenges in seeking to move towards a contributory system has been that the Office for Budget Responsibility has struggled to model correctly the importance of contribution in our welfare system. It has made some changes, but that change should continue. Will the Home Secretary call on the OBR to continue to improve the way that it models the economics of migration?
Answer
My hon. Friend tempts me, but he knows that the OBR is independent. I am sure that it has heard his point about how the contribution of migrants is measured, for the purposes of its forecasts and the scoring decisions that it makes ahead of fiscal events. He will know that the Home Office’s approach is to look at settlement as a lifetime benefit, so we have considered lifetime cost, as well as unique circumstances of particular cohorts. He mentions the BNOs; he will know that they are exempt from any of these income changes. That reflects our long-standing commitment to them, but they have to meet the new minimum requirements.
Verdict: GREEN (78/100)
The question asked whether the Home Secretary will ask the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to assess the matter. The reply answers this directly: the Home Secretary will not, because the OBR is independent, and it adds that the OBR has heard the point about how migrants' contributions are measured. The rest of the reply covers settlement and BNO policy, which the question did not ask about. The answer is clear on the central point, though the note that the OBR 'has heard the point' gives no further detail on what will happen next.
How we got there
| Question item | Coverage | Specificity | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Home Secretary call on the Office for Budget Responsibility to continue improving the way it models the economics of migration? | Addressed | Direct | The reply directly answers whether the Home Secretary will call on the OBR by declining to do so, giving the reason that the OBR is independent, and adds that the OBR has heard the point about how migrants' contributions are measured. Statements 3–6 concern settlement and BNO policy and are not relevant to this item. |